Navigating in a new climate

How can the UN, governments and the corporate sector together create new sustainable solutions and climate neutral growth?

«Todays children will be the first generation to experience an ice free north pole. Dramatic changes in our environment has already taken place as a consequence of CO2 emissions and climate change. The next few decades we must commit ourselves to drastic reductions of climate gases. The corporate sector should take lead in developing and using new technologies and set high standards.» - Sturla Henriksen, CEO Norwegian Shipowner Association.

Backdrop

From our perspective, there are three main issues – intrinsically linked – dominating an increasingly complex, amorphous and dynamic world.

The first relates to sluggish economic growth and increasingly skewed distribution of income, wealth and opportunities. The global political, demographic and economic centers of gravity continue to move from northwest to southeast. Since WWII, more people than ever have been lifted out of poverty and into the global middle class. However, mid-term prospects for further economic growth remain sluggish and uncertain, not least in China, the EU and Japan. Governments are struggling to design adequate policy responses to restore fiscal balance and spur economic growth, while at the same time addressing the need for structural changes to deal with ageing populations.

An ever-increasing number of people are unemployed. Growth in employment is not keeping pace with economic growth. “Jobless growth” is leaving a growing number of people behind, and the younger generations are heavily affected. While economic disparities between countries have been reduced over the past decades, disparities between socio-economic groups within countries have increased significantly.

High rates of unemployment, aggressive fiscal austerity measures and increasingly skewed income distribution fuel social tensions and challenge citizens’ confidence in governments in many countries. Nationalist movements are on the advance in Europe, and violent Islamic fundamentalists are roaming the Arab world.

Secondly, geostrategic competition and “realpolitik” is again about to dominate the world stage. Globalization is being overtaken by global polarization and fragmentation. The United States is withdrawing from its traditional role on the world scene. Russia’s actions in the Ukraine are fundamentally altering the security architecture of the European theater. The EU is struggling to define a coherent response, and is still punching below its weight as a foreign policy actor. Meanwhile, an ever stronger and more self-confident China is reclaiming its historical role on the global stage.

Not least in western countries, we have probably overlooked and underestimated the opposing forces to what we have considered to be a robust and rational development towards increased globalization. Western democratic values and market liberalism are not necessarily perceived in all parts of the world to be universal and ultimate goals for societal development. Nor is an UN-led global order necessarily an ambition shared by all influential countries.

There are asymmetric consequences of these developments. Small countries, like Norway, are more dependent than large countries upon common global rules and dispute settlement mechanisms that replace “right with might” in international relations.

The third aspect relates to the pressing need for more – not less – international cooperation, leadership and governance to deal with issues like climate change and environmental sustainability. These are generational challenges. The Polar ice caps are rapidly receding, affecting ocean currents and global weather patterns. There is a drastic increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. Excessive exploitation of natural resources is causing deforestation, erosion of top soil and degradation of agricultural capacity, and an unparalleled reduction of biodiversity. The need for energy to fuel economic growth and social prosperity must be paired with changes in the energy mix to meet the environmental imperatives.